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Do red states report higher rates of violent crime than blue states?

Thursday, June 24, 2021
By Stevie Rosignol-Cortez
YES

In 2020, nine of ten states with the highest per capita violent crime rates leaned Republican, while eight of ten states with the lowest rates leaned Democrat, according to a cross-analysis of the latest available FBI crime data with FiveThirtyEight's partisan lean index.

Looking at the murder rate specifically, states that voted for Donald Trump exceeded states that voted for Joe Biden in every year since 2000, according to an analysis of CDC mortality data by Third Way. The left-center think tank pointed to higher poverty and gun ownership and lower education and social spending in red states as possible explanations.

The FBI cautions against using any one demographic marker to draw conclusions about the causes of crime, which they describe as manifold, complex and often “not readily measurable.” Cited variables include:

  • Youth concentration.
  • Poverty and job availability.
  • Education levels.
  • Family cohesiveness.
  • Strength of law enforcement.

Statistics are further complicated by the fact that higher crime rates may reflect greater reporting rather than a higher incidence of crime.

Updated 4/18/23 to reflect the most up-to-date information.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
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