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This fact brief was originally published as an experiment to test the concepts behind fact briefs.

Readers should be aware that while there is still a lot of useful information in fact briefs like this one, not all of them reflect Gigafact's current methods and standards for fact briefs. If you come across any that you feel are out of date, don't hesitate to contact us at support@gigafact.org.

FACT BRIEF

Has the chance of dying from extreme weather significantly declined over the past century?

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

By Jacob Alabab-Moser

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YES

Over the past century, there has been a substantial decline in deaths from extreme weather.

The average number of annual natural disaster–related deaths declined from between 400,000 and 500,000 in the early 1900s to less than 100,000 in the second half of the 20th century and the first decades of the 21st century, according to the International Disaster Database, which has cataloged more than 18,000 mass disasters dating back to 1900. Comparing deaths over longer periods of time is preferable to comparing between years since the number of deaths in any given year is highly variable, with low-frequency, high-impact events causing the most deaths.

The decline is attributable to improved disaster management and response systems rather than a decrease in extreme weather events. The number of natural disasters has actually risen by a factor of five over the past 50 years, causing a sevenfold increase in economic losses.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

Our World in Data Natural disasters

Our World in Data Global natural disaster death rates

World Meteorological Organization Weather-related disasters increase over past 50 years, causing more damage but fewer deaths

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Gigafact

Between 2020 and 2022, under close editorial supervision, Gigafact contracted a group of freelance writers and editors to test the concepts for fact briefs and provide inputs to our software development process. We call this effort Gigafact Foundry. Over the course of these two years, Gigafact Foundry writers published over 1500 fact briefs in response to claims they found online. Their important work forms the basis of Gigafact formats and editorial guidelines, and is available to the public on Gigafact.org. Readers should be aware that while there is still a lot of relevant information to be found, not all fact briefs produced by Gigafact Foundry reflect Gigafact's current methods and standards for fact briefs. If you come across any that you feel are out of date and need to be looked at with fresh eyes, don't hesitate to contact us at support@gigafact.org.

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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.