FACT BRIEF

Have pandemic lockdowns been proven ineffective at reducing COVID-19 deaths?

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

By Lisa Freedland

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A preprint paper released earlier this month, which has not yet undergone peer review, is drawing criticism from infectious disease experts, who say it does not invalidate previous findings that lockdowns significantly reduced COVID-19 cases and deaths.

One objection is that the paper uses an overly broad definition of lockdown as a "compulsory non-pharmaceutical intervention," which fails to distinguish between different policies — mask-wearing, quarantining if sick, curfews, non-essential business closures, shelter-in-place orders, etc. — that entail different degrees of isolation.

Another is that the paper, which looks at 24 previous studies on lockdowns and COVID-19 mortality, excludes any data more recent than April 2021 — before the Delta variant took hold and before the Omicron variant emerged.

Two widely cited studies from 2020 found that lockdowns prevented or delayed 530 million COVID-19 cases and averted 3.1 million deaths throughout Europe, Asia, and the U.S.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

Science Media Centre Expert reaction to a preprint looking at the impact of lockdowns, as posted on the Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences website

AJMC Controversial Paper Claims COVID-19 "Lockdowns" Had Little Public Health Effect

Reuters Lockdowns saved many lives and easing them is risky, say scientists

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