FACT BRIEF

In recent years, have the electorates in Texas and Florida become more Democratic?

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

By Austin Tannenbaum

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While the voter base in Texas has become more Democratic in recent years, Florida’s electorate has become less so.

According to a study of Texas demographic data from 2009 to 2019, “party change is occurring in Texas,” with “evidence that Democratic identification...is increasing.” Researchers attribute the shift to demographic change, as the growing ranks of racially diverse younger voters offset the influence of older whites, who are more likely to identify as Republican. (Texas doesn’t ask voters to register a party preference.)

In Florida, registered Democrats still slightly outnumber registered Republicans. However, Pew Research reported last year that the Democrats' advantage has been shrinking, from 658,000 in 2008, to 327,000 in 2016 and then to 134,000 in 2020, suggesting Florida's population is shifting more Republican.

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Sources

American Political Science Association Red to purple? Changing demographics and party change in Texas

Texas Secretary of State Party affiliation questions and answers

Pew Research Democrats’ advantage over Republicans among Florida registered voters has shrunk since 2016

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