FACT BRIEF

Is Arctic sea ice shrinking?

Thursday, July 8, 2021

By Dana Nuccitelli

Copy link

Copy featured image

YES

Arctic sea ice naturally grows and shrinks in an annual cycle given seasonal differences in average temperature. It reaches its annual maximum in March and minimum in September.

Arctic sea ice area and volume have trended downward over the past 40 years. NASA found that September ice extent between 1979 and 2020 has declined by an average of 13.1% per decade.

This decline is driven by increasing global temperatures from human-generated greenhouse gas emissions. While a 2017 study suggested that between 30% and 50% of the observed melting is due to natural causes, one of its authors stated that “anthropogenic forcing is still dominant,” whereas “natural variability...helped accelerate this melting.”

The decline is turning reflective sea ice into absorptive ocean water, causing the Arctic to warm about three times faster than the global average.

See a full discussion of this at Skeptical Science

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

NASA World of change: Arctic sea ice

NASA Arctic sea ice minimum

University of Washington Rapid decline of Arctic sea ice a combination of climate change and natural variability

Encyclopædia Britannica Ice albedo feedback

ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTOR

Skeptical Science

Skeptical Science is a non-profit science education organization. Our goal is to remove a roadblock to climate action by building public resilience against climate misinformation. We achieve this by publishing debunking of climate myths as well as providing resources for educators, communicators, scientists, and the general public. Skeptical Science was founded and is led by John Cook, a Senior Research Fellow with the Melbourne Centre for Behaviour Change at the University of Melbourne.

FACT BRIEF BY

Latest fact briefs

About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.