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This fact brief was originally published as an experiment to test the concepts behind fact briefs.

Readers should be aware that while there is still a lot of useful information in fact briefs like this one, not all of them reflect Gigafact's current methods and standards for fact briefs. If you come across any that you feel are out of date, don't hesitate to contact us at support@gigafact.org.

FACT BRIEF

Are claims of scientific consensus about the causes of climate change overstated?

Saturday, November 21, 2020

By Austin Tannenbaum

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Between 90% and 100% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that climate change is human-caused, according to a 2016 analysis of six studies measuring the degree of consensus on the topic. The analysis established that the commonly used 97% consensus figure is "robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer reviewed studies."

The authors refute challenges to the consensus by noting that “the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science.” Experts are defined as climate scientists currently publishing in the field. Non-experts include scientists in other fields and non-publishing climate scientists. The authors use the expert consensus level, reasoning that experts are the more qualified to judge.

The authors note that “manufactured doubt about the consensus…is one of the most effective means of reducing acceptance of climate change."

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

IOP Science: Consensus on consensus—a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming

Science: The scientific consensus on climate change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: Expert credibility in climate change

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Climate change 2007—Synthesis report summary for policymakers

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Gigafact

Between 2020 and 2022, under close editorial supervision, Gigafact contracted a group of freelance writers and editors to test the concepts for fact briefs and provide inputs to our software development process. We call this effort Gigafact Foundry. Over the course of these two years, Gigafact Foundry writers published over 1500 fact briefs in response to claims they found online. Their important work forms the basis of Gigafact formats and editorial guidelines, and is available to the public on Gigafact.org. Readers should be aware that while there is still a lot of relevant information to be found, not all fact briefs produced by Gigafact Foundry reflect Gigafact's current methods and standards for fact briefs. If you come across any that you feel are out of date and need to be looked at with fresh eyes, don't hesitate to contact us at support@gigafact.org.

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About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.