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FACT BRIEF

Do both excess-death estimates and case fatality rates show that COVID-19 has been far more deadly than the flu?

Sunday, April 11, 2021
By Lisa Freedland
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YES

COVID-19’s deadliness is tracked in two ways. Measures of “excess” deaths vs. historical averages are used as fatal cases are not always identified by tests. “Case fatality rates” tally officially reported fatal cases of the disease. Both measures suggest COVID-19 has been far more deadly than ordinary flu.

Flu epidemics vary in severity from year to year, and with incomplete testing data excess-death numbers are particularly helpful. A review of a decade of flu data from the Netherlands found only one period with excess deaths even close to comparable to those from an eight-week period last year during the initial outbreak of COVID-19.

The Centers for Disease Control estimates that the fatality rate from flu in the U.S. in the 2017-18 winter season was 0.13% (61,000 deaths). The case-fatality rate of COVID-19 to date in the U.S. is 1.8% (561,000 deaths).

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
US Centers for Disease Control Excess deaths in Netherlands, July 2017-May 2020
US Centers for Disease Control Excess deaths during influenza and coronavirus disease, the Netherlands
US Centers for Disease Control 2017-2018 influenza season in the US
Johns Hopkins COVID-19 mortality in the most affected countries
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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.