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FACT BRIEF

Do presidential debates have a major impact on voters’ opinions?

Wednesday, September 2, 2020
By Allegra Taylor
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NO

Studies have shown that presidential debates leading up to November general elections have minimal effects on voters’ attitudes towards a candidate. An analysis of elections from 1976 to 2012 found that poll results changed by only 2.2 percentage points from the period after the first debate to right before the election. The leader in the polls after the first debate was always ahead in the final polls.

A 2013 study of presidential general election debates from 2000 to 2012 found that 86.3% of voters were not persuaded to change their preference after viewing a debate, and only 3.5% switched candidates.

“There is no case where we can trace a substantial shift to the debates,” said political scientist James Stimson, surveying campaigns from 1960 to 2000.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
FiveThirtyEight: First debates usually go to the challenger
Academia: Examination of a decade of campaign debate effects
Washington Monthly: Presidential debates rarely matter
Vox: Do presidential debates matter?
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Between 2020 and 2022, under close editorial supervision, Gigafact contracted a group of freelance writers and editors to test the concepts for fact briefs and provide inputs to our software development process. We call this effort Gigafact Foundry. Over the course of these two years, Gigafact Foundry writers published over 1500 fact briefs in response to claims they found online. Their important work forms the basis of Gigafact formats and editorial guidelines, and is available to the public on Gigafact.org. Readers should be aware that while there is still a lot of relevant information to be found, not all fact briefs produced by Gigafact Foundry reflect Gigafact's current methods and standards for fact briefs. If you come across any that you feel are out of date and need to be looked at with fresh eyes, don't hesitate to contact us at support@gigafact.org.
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About fact briefs published on Gigafact
Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.