It is unclear if President Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan will increase the threats already posed by al-Qaida, as the terrorist group behind 9/11 has taken advantage of chaos elsewhere to disperse its forces.
A 2018 Council on Foreign Relations analysis noted that the group had tens of thousands of members scattered across northern Africa and the Middle East, most notably in Syria, where it has capitalized on the demise of the Islamic State. Afghanistan, the CFR noted, had become home to fewer than 800 members of al-Qaida, compared to between 10,000 and 20,000 members in Syria. With encrypted communications and other changes, the value of a concentrated operating base may have diminished.
Experts say a resurgent Taliban may honor, at least in the near term, its 2020 commitments to keep terrorist groups threatening the U.S. from using the country as a base.