FACT BRIEF

Is a vote for a third-party candidate more powerful in some states than in others?

Friday, October 16, 2020

By Seth Smalley

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YES

Votes for third parties in states with closely balanced support for the two major parties can have a more substantial impact than in states with more lopsided partisan alignments.

This is clearest in presidential races, with state-by-state winner-take-all decisions to determine each state's Electoral College vote. In "battleground states" that routinely swing narrowly between Democrats and Republicans, a relatively small number of votes for a third-party candidate can be decisive. In 2000, supporters of Green Party candidate Ralph Nader swung Florida's, and the nation's, presidential choice. Nader won 97,488 votes in the state, while George Bush and Al Gore each received just under 3 million. In the end, after a Supreme Court ruling ending recounts, Bush was declared the victor with a margin of 537 votes, giving him the edge in the Electoral College.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

AP: Third parties could play a lesser role in 2020 campaign

Federal Election Commission: 2000 presidential election results

University of Virginia: The third-party impact on American politics

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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.